* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/10/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 29 28 32 33 34 39 44 48 50 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 29 28 32 33 34 39 44 48 50 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 30 29 28 29 31 33 35 38 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 15 14 10 15 14 16 15 14 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 1 2 -2 2 4 11 11 10 7 SHEAR DIR 107 110 123 126 144 157 130 168 172 160 160 192 18 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 142 142 145 147 150 152 155 157 160 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 55 57 57 56 50 49 46 42 41 40 46 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 21 20 18 18 18 17 16 16 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 167 157 147 126 107 95 89 119 144 163 161 171 174 200 MB DIV 34 26 14 22 32 31 26 8 -20 3 0 4 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2240 2251 2262 2274 2285 2317 2356 2412 2500 2580 2669 2782 2906 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.2 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.4 3.4 2.2 LONG(DEG W) 174.5 174.7 174.8 175.0 175.1 175.3 175.5 175.7 176.0 176.3 176.6 177.0 177.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 55 55 55 55 55 61 69 79 86 85 82 85 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -3. -2. -1. 4. 9. 13. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##