* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 33 32 31 32 36 36 44 50 55 58 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 33 32 31 32 36 36 44 50 55 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 32 31 31 31 33 37 41 45 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 12 13 13 9 15 15 13 11 8 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 1 4 5 0 4 11 10 7 7 9 SHEAR DIR 119 131 133 143 157 156 161 162 160 149 151 134 44 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 142 142 141 146 153 156 157 159 161 162 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 51 54 54 55 54 51 47 45 43 45 47 53 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 19 18 17 16 18 16 17 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 157 148 120 102 93 98 103 136 154 175 182 182 137 200 MB DIV 25 14 19 19 30 39 24 16 12 23 19 18 52 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 2 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2233 2228 2224 2201 2179 2143 2216 2364 2527 2666 2768 2873 2972 LAT (DEG N) 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.0 5.7 4.3 3.2 2.5 1.7 0.9 LONG(DEG W) 174.3 174.3 174.3 174.1 173.8 173.2 173.4 173.9 174.5 175.1 175.7 176.2 176.6 STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 1 3 3 2 5 7 7 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 47 45 44 48 64 81 82 83 86 90 92 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -7. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. 1. 1. 9. 15. 20. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##