* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/10/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 50 51 49 49 49 51 55 60 60 60 V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 50 51 49 49 49 51 55 60 60 60 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 51 51 49 46 45 48 53 58 64 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 5 6 7 7 7 10 8 14 6 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 8 9 8 7 10 15 8 8 12 10 SHEAR DIR 136 139 177 189 205 213 175 156 145 145 129 265 337 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 140 142 149 155 156 158 158 159 160 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 54 52 47 44 41 43 47 50 55 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 23 20 21 20 20 19 19 20 21 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 142 116 99 85 88 104 122 156 174 188 192 184 169 200 MB DIV 40 56 64 52 33 24 19 11 19 19 26 25 36 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 3 1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 2194 2170 2147 2124 2102 2121 2230 2387 2549 2677 2764 2842 2920 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.1 7.7 6.6 5.2 3.9 3.0 2.4 1.9 1.4 LONG(DEG W) 174.0 173.8 173.6 173.3 173.1 172.9 173.1 173.6 174.3 175.0 175.5 176.0 176.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 2 3 7 7 7 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 40 40 41 50 72 83 84 84 87 89 91 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -3. -3. -5. -5. -7. -6. -4. -4. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 4. 6. 10. 15. 15. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##