* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 59 60 61 63 64 59 62 62 64 68 68 V (KT) LAND 50 56 59 60 61 63 64 59 62 62 64 68 68 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 60 63 65 68 69 70 74 79 82 87 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 6 6 7 5 12 14 14 5 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 9 9 7 7 9 14 12 6 5 9 13 SHEAR DIR 116 146 182 199 202 194 163 162 127 154 118 18 31 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 144 145 148 151 155 157 157 159 161 163 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 55 53 49 43 42 42 49 52 62 67 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 22 21 22 22 23 20 23 22 22 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 109 97 86 84 91 105 143 164 191 208 207 190 177 200 MB DIV 88 93 75 55 56 48 40 16 42 37 28 38 50 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2227 2204 2181 2184 2186 2218 2284 2375 2486 2591 2681 2806 2933 LAT (DEG N) 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.5 5.6 4.6 3.6 2.8 2.3 1.5 0.6 LONG(DEG W) 174.0 173.8 173.5 173.3 173.1 172.8 172.6 172.6 172.9 173.4 174.1 174.9 175.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 55 53 52 57 62 73 83 89 99 103 98 96 96 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -8. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 9. 12. 12. 14. 18. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 77% is 5.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 76% is 9.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 74% is 12.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 74% is 19.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##