* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 58 57 52 48 42 41 42 46 47 49 V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 58 57 52 48 42 41 42 46 47 49 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 59 58 55 51 49 48 48 51 54 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 13 15 17 19 20 18 13 8 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 10 6 8 7 9 8 7 7 3 5 7 SHEAR DIR 195 191 203 212 216 212 183 183 180 190 202 264 58 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 140 141 144 150 152 155 156 157 159 159 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6 -51.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 48 48 41 40 43 48 58 65 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 23 22 23 23 23 21 22 20 21 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 105 90 85 96 100 125 152 178 193 198 190 167 163 200 MB DIV 111 98 63 54 48 6 3 -2 23 16 45 60 73 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 -4 -6 -7 -5 -3 -3 -1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 2148 2113 2079 2058 2039 2086 2171 2269 2378 2473 2576 2666 2760 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.3 6.2 5.2 4.3 3.6 2.9 2.4 2.0 LONG(DEG W) 173.5 173.2 172.9 172.5 172.1 171.9 171.7 171.8 172.2 172.7 173.3 174.0 174.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 42 41 41 45 49 61 78 89 95 102 103 99 92 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 3. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -7. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 2. -3. -7. -13. -14. -13. -9. -8. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##