* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/11/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 48 45 39 37 32 36 36 37 39 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 48 45 39 37 32 36 36 37 39 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 48 46 45 41 37 35 33 33 33 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 9 13 17 17 20 20 13 10 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 8 8 7 4 8 8 9 4 3 5 4 SHEAR DIR 191 214 220 210 215 215 198 187 178 205 248 256 318 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 142 143 146 148 152 152 152 151 151 153 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 48 45 42 42 41 38 44 50 57 56 62 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 22 22 23 21 22 19 20 19 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 93 89 91 96 110 149 164 174 187 182 177 161 160 200 MB DIV 92 69 65 42 30 22 12 0 13 41 58 58 83 700-850 TADV 3 3 -2 -6 -7 -6 -2 -2 -2 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 2094 2067 2040 2036 2033 2090 2184 2304 2412 2508 2572 2667 2766 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.1 6.2 5.1 4.2 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.0 LONG(DEG W) 173.1 172.9 172.6 172.3 171.9 171.7 171.9 172.2 172.6 173.4 174.5 175.5 176.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 38 43 47 57 71 82 86 83 74 72 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. -5. -3. -4. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -13. -18. -14. -14. -13. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##