* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/11/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 53 52 49 45 40 38 39 37 40 39 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 53 52 49 45 40 38 39 37 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 53 51 49 45 41 39 39 40 40 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 12 14 15 14 17 18 11 5 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 8 7 9 8 8 11 13 7 2 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 207 223 224 225 218 202 192 168 196 226 239 252 287 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 144 145 150 153 152 152 152 152 153 155 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -50.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 47 46 44 45 46 44 49 51 56 56 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 20 21 22 20 18 17 16 15 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 94 100 105 116 134 145 165 173 174 175 162 147 140 200 MB DIV 52 57 43 25 -7 1 29 9 14 38 49 53 47 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -6 -5 -7 -6 -3 -3 -1 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2049 2028 2009 2031 2055 2161 2297 2415 2502 2565 2636 2731 2842 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.2 8.1 7.7 7.2 6.1 4.9 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.7 LONG(DEG W) 172.6 172.2 171.8 171.6 171.3 171.4 171.8 172.5 173.3 174.0 174.8 175.8 177.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 44 49 55 73 87 88 84 78 75 75 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -16. -18. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -9. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -17. -16. -18. -15. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##