* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 77 76 72 63 57 50 45 46 47 45 44 V (KT) LAND 75 78 77 76 72 63 57 50 45 46 47 45 44 V (KT) LGE mod 75 80 81 79 76 68 63 58 56 55 54 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 15 14 16 17 18 14 7 5 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 7 6 10 11 9 7 3 2 4 7 SHEAR DIR 219 229 223 224 217 200 177 169 202 253 215 276 272 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 144 147 149 153 152 153 152 152 153 155 157 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 47 47 45 47 47 45 46 52 54 54 58 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 21 21 20 20 18 16 17 17 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 104 111 123 136 145 157 164 174 170 168 158 141 142 200 MB DIV 49 45 20 -12 -13 15 34 22 23 61 67 68 72 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -5 -6 -5 -3 -3 -1 1 2 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 2006 2015 2026 2076 2128 2279 2393 2495 2585 2664 2736 2844 2987 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.0 6.4 5.1 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.3 LONG(DEG W) 172.0 171.7 171.4 171.4 171.3 171.8 172.3 173.2 174.3 175.2 176.0 177.5 179.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 6 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 46 49 58 69 85 89 86 76 73 74 81 101 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 76/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. 1. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. 1. -3. -12. -18. -25. -30. -29. -28. -30. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##