* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/12/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 73 71 69 64 55 51 49 51 58 60 61 V (KT) LAND 75 75 73 71 69 64 55 51 49 51 58 60 61 V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 75 72 69 63 58 55 53 53 55 59 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 13 16 16 20 18 13 6 2 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 8 4 2 4 8 9 9 2 -1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 213 217 213 213 201 190 173 185 204 208 152 157 152 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 147 150 151 152 153 152 154 154 154 155 156 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -50.5 -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 -51.4 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 50 47 49 49 50 49 52 58 65 65 64 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 21 21 22 19 19 18 17 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 113 123 144 150 157 167 167 174 165 154 141 139 130 200 MB DIV 37 16 -14 -18 -8 22 8 -2 22 53 81 109 120 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2028 2058 2089 2149 2211 2340 2449 2548 2661 2753 2835 2915 3006 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 7.4 6.9 6.3 5.7 4.7 4.0 3.4 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.5 LONG(DEG W) 171.7 171.5 171.4 171.5 171.6 172.2 172.9 173.6 174.5 175.6 176.9 178.0 179.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 48 53 60 70 79 85 86 84 80 77 78 89 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. 1. 5. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -1. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -20. -24. -26. -24. -17. -15. -14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##