* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 75 73 69 61 56 54 60 61 65 66 V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 75 73 69 61 56 54 60 61 65 66 V (KT) LGE mod 80 80 78 75 72 66 62 59 58 59 62 67 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 15 17 17 19 17 11 6 5 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 4 4 6 7 7 7 2 -2 1 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 214 210 206 198 193 178 172 192 198 184 169 162 160 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 151 152 152 152 153 153 154 155 155 156 157 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 51 52 51 52 51 58 63 66 66 61 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 21 21 18 18 17 19 17 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 124 139 149 158 165 163 172 167 153 143 131 121 105 200 MB DIV 22 0 -4 0 23 34 22 23 39 106 113 89 128 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2077 2138 2199 2265 2331 2443 2551 2642 2735 2819 2887 2968 3061 LAT (DEG N) 7.1 6.5 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.0 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 LONG(DEG W) 171.5 171.6 171.7 172.0 172.2 172.8 173.5 174.2 175.2 176.3 177.5 178.6 179.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 48 57 67 75 79 83 85 82 78 77 83 98 112 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -4. 1. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. -3. -4. -5. -2. -4. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -19. -24. -26. -20. -19. -15. -14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##