* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 88 89 89 82 73 69 67 73 75 76 75 V (KT) LAND 85 87 88 89 89 82 73 69 67 73 75 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 85 87 88 88 86 80 76 75 75 80 84 87 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 12 10 10 12 14 12 5 5 3 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 3 7 10 11 6 0 -1 2 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 185 168 162 177 176 169 187 190 205 163 160 181 157 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 153 153 154 154 153 154 155 156 156 157 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -51.1 -50.5 -51.0 -50.8 -51.3 -50.5 -51.0 -50.3 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 50 51 51 50 51 54 63 66 67 64 63 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 23 20 18 19 19 22 23 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 140 152 163 175 175 180 182 172 157 141 130 123 115 200 MB DIV 7 18 39 52 31 25 -10 9 47 94 107 128 138 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2112 2183 2254 2319 2384 2508 2648 2735 2789 2859 2962 3029 3075 LAT (DEG N) 6.5 5.9 5.3 4.8 4.3 3.5 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 LONG(DEG W) 171.2 171.5 171.7 172.0 172.3 173.1 174.3 175.2 176.0 177.0 178.3 179.3 179.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 58 68 77 82 85 87 81 78 76 79 95 108 113 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -3. -5. -4. -4. 0. 2. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. -3. -12. -16. -18. -12. -10. -9. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##