* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 85 84 84 74 71 66 62 68 71 70 71 V (KT) LAND 85 85 85 84 84 74 71 66 62 68 71 70 71 V (KT) LGE mod 85 85 84 82 79 74 72 70 70 72 75 79 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 9 10 13 9 7 4 2 3 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 6 9 9 10 7 0 0 4 6 4 5 SHEAR DIR 185 167 176 171 164 174 198 229 202 180 146 225 80 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 155 154 154 154 153 154 154 155 156 159 159 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 54 52 56 63 64 66 65 66 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 22 23 19 19 19 18 21 22 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 140 147 158 164 169 179 177 162 142 139 139 142 137 200 MB DIV 18 31 34 30 38 -2 -8 21 68 72 86 108 117 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 2174 2237 2301 2364 2427 2536 2641 2740 2832 2921 3004 3464 3304 LAT (DEG N) 5.7 5.1 4.6 4.3 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 LONG(DEG W) 171.0 171.2 171.4 171.9 172.4 173.4 174.6 175.8 177.1 178.3 179.4 180.9 182.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 74 84 91 90 89 85 76 73 77 91 105 86 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 0. -6. -5. -6. -7. -3. -2. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -10. -14. -19. -23. -17. -14. -15. -14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/13/16 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/13/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##