* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 77 77 71 66 60 55 56 56 53 51 45 V (KT) LAND 80 78 77 77 71 66 60 55 56 56 53 51 45 V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 74 70 67 62 60 58 58 61 62 61 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 11 13 17 15 12 6 6 8 11 11 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 12 10 10 10 7 1 0 -1 1 4 7 5 SHEAR DIR 181 204 172 167 167 197 216 242 280 275 269 282 244 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 154 153 153 153 155 156 157 159 159 158 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -51.1 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 47 50 52 50 53 59 61 60 60 62 61 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 22 19 18 17 16 17 17 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 147 161 168 169 169 168 173 155 133 135 145 143 139 200 MB DIV 41 57 58 28 8 -15 3 19 55 89 126 124 114 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 2 5 4 LAND (KM) 2236 2301 2366 2418 2470 2568 2695 2810 2921 3019 3444 3290 3141 LAT (DEG N) 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.8 LONG(DEG W) 171.1 171.4 171.7 172.3 172.8 173.9 175.4 176.8 178.3 179.7 181.2 182.9 184.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 86 91 95 91 88 79 72 76 91 106 85 87 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -4. -6. -7. -10. -8. -7. -9. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -9. -14. -20. -25. -24. -24. -27. -29. -35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/13/16 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 90.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##