* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 62 58 54 52 50 46 47 51 52 51 51 V (KT) LAND 70 66 62 58 54 52 50 46 47 51 52 51 51 V (KT) LGE mod 70 64 59 55 52 48 45 45 46 51 56 61 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 16 20 19 16 8 5 4 6 4 3 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 13 14 15 12 2 0 0 1 0 4 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 197 197 185 181 176 192 228 246 205 186 222 192 143 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 154 154 154 154 156 157 159 159 158 157 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 53 55 62 62 57 58 62 62 64 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 16 15 16 14 12 13 13 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 156 159 161 161 161 169 163 139 122 131 143 131 125 200 MB DIV 66 54 37 6 9 23 61 51 53 62 103 125 139 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2332 2389 2446 2504 2563 2670 2782 2882 2977 3536 3394 3290 3202 LAT (DEG N) 4.4 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.5 LONG(DEG W) 171.6 172.0 172.4 172.9 173.4 174.5 175.9 177.2 178.5 180.0 181.6 182.8 183.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 89 89 89 88 87 81 76 81 96 111 85 87 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -8. -4. 1. 5. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -11. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -24. -23. -19. -18. -19. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/13/16 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 88.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/13/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##