* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012016 01/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 55 65 76 80 78 78 77 71 66 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 55 65 76 80 78 78 77 71 66 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 53 54 58 63 61 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 24 21 9 16 14 25 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -4 -3 3 1 6 13 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 321 342 307 278 224 163 135 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.7 21.0 20.5 19.9 18.7 15.5 12.5 6.0 4.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 84 83 82 79 75 73 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 78 77 76 75 73 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -56.3 -57.6 -59.4 -60.4 -63.2 -63.5 -61.4 -64.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 57 59 62 67 68 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 25 24 24 30 35 37 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 156 134 124 112 117 90 176 251 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 26 38 24 24 113 144 81 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 28 4 -5 31 84 123 -25 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1509 1492 1483 1508 1547 1578 1521 1457 1425 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.9 29.3 30.6 32.4 34.2 39.3 46.0 52.8 59.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.4 29.6 28.8 28.1 27.5 27.5 29.0 31.9 35.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 19 22 30 34 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 34. 42. 48. 52. 52. 54. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 8. 10. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 15. 26. 30. 28. 28. 27. 21. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012016 ALEX 01/14/16 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012016 ALEX 01/14/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)