* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 46 46 44 47 49 55 61 65 66 63 V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 46 46 44 47 49 55 61 65 66 63 V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 46 43 41 39 40 42 49 60 71 80 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 19 18 15 12 7 9 11 6 7 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 8 9 6 3 1 0 -4 2 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 169 165 168 176 191 196 172 129 114 131 134 162 187 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 158 158 158 157 159 158 161 160 160 159 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 50 54 59 62 62 66 62 63 64 67 65 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 16 16 14 13 12 13 12 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 166 174 184 183 186 161 137 122 114 119 117 107 94 200 MB DIV 23 36 37 22 32 68 63 88 90 103 91 108 80 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2492 2548 2605 2661 2718 2826 2932 3023 3102 3417 3290 3169 3065 LAT (DEG N) 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.5 3.3 LONG(DEG W) 171.9 172.3 172.7 173.4 174.1 175.5 176.8 178.2 179.5 180.9 182.2 183.6 185.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 110 110 109 101 94 83 82 95 114 83 83 86 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -2. 1. 5. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 9. 10. 9. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -9. -11. -8. -6. 0. 6. 10. 11. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/14/16 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 104.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##