* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 29 27 26 28 32 36 43 48 53 54 V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 29 27 26 28 32 36 43 48 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 40 33 29 26 25 23 23 25 28 33 40 48 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 20 20 17 11 3 4 4 6 5 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 2 3 0 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 157 160 172 177 175 187 254 339 341 347 91 41 13 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 158 158 159 159 159 161 159 159 159 160 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -51.5 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 57 60 63 63 65 64 59 58 59 60 58 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 172 180 180 178 168 149 132 128 124 130 131 124 112 200 MB DIV 37 36 25 26 64 77 73 95 94 108 94 109 111 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2557 2608 2660 2729 2799 2916 2995 3104 3383 3255 3189 3072 2904 LAT (DEG N) 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.0 LONG(DEG W) 172.2 172.8 173.3 174.1 174.8 176.3 177.7 179.3 181.1 182.5 183.4 184.8 186.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 7 8 9 8 6 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 114 108 103 96 90 83 88 113 84 84 86 88 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -6. -4. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 8. 9. 10. 9. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -12. -8. -4. 3. 8. 13. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/14/16 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 102.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##