* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 24 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 19 17 16 13 2 3 1 2 5 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 -2 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 163 176 184 180 176 174 180 178 200 89 125 154 187 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 156 157 157 157 159 160 159 159 157 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 58 61 60 58 60 56 55 53 55 53 53 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 9 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 172 174 173 163 153 133 123 121 119 131 128 121 107 200 MB DIV 28 22 23 49 73 56 84 94 108 107 111 75 67 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2567 2627 2687 2739 2791 2880 2962 3049 3498 3360 3199 3088 2998 LAT (DEG N) 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.8 LONG(DEG W) 172.7 173.3 173.9 174.5 175.1 176.3 177.6 178.9 180.1 181.6 183.4 184.8 186.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 86 84 83 81 79 79 86 108 79 85 86 88 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -2. 1. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -7. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. 8. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -14. -16. -11. -6. 1. 9. 14. 19. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/14/16 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 82.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##