* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 21 17 16 18 24 30 36 41 47 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 21 17 16 18 24 30 36 41 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 179 187 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 176 170 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 31 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2620 2675 2730 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 2.1 1.9 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 172.8 173.4 174.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 95 92 88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -14. -12. -9. -5. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 17. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -14. -12. -6. 0. 6. 11. 17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/14/16 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.7 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.3 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##