* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012016 01/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 73 74 74 74 70 70 71 72 72 68 62 V (KT) LAND 75 73 73 74 74 74 70 70 71 72 72 68 62 V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 70 68 66 59 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 13 18 22 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 10 12 16 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 267 225 191 173 147 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.1 17.5 16.1 14.9 13.4 6.2 4.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 76 76 76 75 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 72 73 74 73 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -60.3 -61.6 -62.3 -62.9 -63.0 -61.3 -64.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 61 64 67 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 35 38 38 36 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 94 90 114 137 198 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 56 123 157 148 59 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 29 49 57 98 115 -45 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1549 1652 1623 1587 1580 1449 1349 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 35.9 37.9 41.4 44.8 52.6 58.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.7 31.7 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 28 35 37 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 16 CX,CY: 3/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -13. -17. -24. -30. -35. -39. -43. -44. -46. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 12. 17. 25. 35. 41. 48. 54. 59. 60. 62. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -7. -13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012016 ALEX 01/15/16 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012016 ALEX 01/15/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 5( 13) 5( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)