* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012016 01/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 71 73 75 74 70 69 71 72 72 67 60 V (KT) LAND 70 69 71 73 75 74 70 69 71 72 72 67 60 V (KT) LGE mod 70 68 66 64 62 53 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 10 20 21 29 34 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 12 14 19 25 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 230 201 174 153 144 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.5 15.8 14.9 13.2 10.7 5.5 4.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 75 75 75 73 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 72 73 73 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -61.7 -62.9 -63.2 -63.4 -62.2 -62.0 -66.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 61 64 62 71 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 37 37 39 36 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 75 112 145 176 211 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 103 142 148 114 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 41 72 116 102 47 56 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1594 1578 1546 1569 1427 1456 1221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.8 38.5 41.2 45.0 48.8 56.0 61.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.7 29.8 33.8 39.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 27 33 39 38 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 19 CX,CY: 3/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -11. -15. -22. -27. -31. -35. -37. -39. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 8. 13. 18. 27. 38. 45. 52. 59. 64. 66. 68. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -31. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. -3. -10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012016 ALEX 01/15/16 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012016 ALEX 01/15/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 5( 12) 5( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED