* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 20 22 25 30 33 38 41 43 43 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 20 22 25 30 33 38 41 43 43 V (KT) LGE mod 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 17 13 7 5 6 11 7 6 7 6 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 3 5 6 1 0 6 7 12 23 23 SHEAR DIR 192 201 196 210 238 263 238 226 207 212 207 300 296 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 160 160 163 161 160 161 161 160 159 158 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.6 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 56 54 48 46 47 43 43 43 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 164 154 147 141 139 132 134 128 115 107 114 110 77 200 MB DIV 92 100 79 73 77 70 78 84 95 50 23 -11 -33 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2735 2791 2851 2919 2991 3472 3264 3056 2854 2640 2421 2166 1864 LAT (DEG N) 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 LONG(DEG W) 173.3 174.5 175.6 176.8 178.0 180.4 182.6 184.8 187.0 189.4 191.9 194.9 198.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 105 88 80 80 93 80 83 87 90 95 107 120 121 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/15/16 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 89.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/15/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##