* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 31 35 39 43 45 49 48 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 31 35 39 43 45 49 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 18 19 19 21 23 26 30 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 7 6 5 9 12 5 6 7 3 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 3 7 8 1 0 3 3 8 22 22 23 SHEAR DIR 186 185 181 218 238 245 243 209 191 220 193 333 336 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 160 159 163 161 160 160 161 160 158 157 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 62 57 54 52 50 51 51 49 46 47 49 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 147 143 141 135 131 134 136 124 112 107 107 84 65 200 MB DIV 112 86 57 47 74 68 97 79 97 71 39 -16 -38 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 2778 2833 2893 2955 3020 3446 3249 3052 2860 2671 2446 2192 1896 LAT (DEG N) 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.8 LONG(DEG W) 173.7 174.9 176.1 177.3 178.4 180.7 182.8 184.9 187.0 189.2 191.7 194.8 198.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 12 14 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 94 75 69 73 94 81 84 87 90 93 104 122 119 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -17. -19. -19. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 8. 9. 9. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 23. 25. 29. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/15/16 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 81.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##