* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 47 48 48 46 41 30 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 47 43 43 41 36 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 40 40 37 36 33 29 24 22 23 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 17 20 30 38 45 55 67 62 53 29 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 6 8 9 0 4 2 2 -3 4 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 235 241 228 239 254 253 251 244 260 268 253 242 254 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 27.7 26.9 25.7 24.6 23.8 22.7 10.0 4.4 8.7 9.4 6.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 137 135 127 115 108 105 99 72 67 67 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 126 126 119 108 104 102 95 71 N/A 65 67 66 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -51.4 -50.3 -47.3 -45.7 -45.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.2 -0.6 0.2 1.7 3.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 8 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 78 75 74 71 59 46 47 46 41 48 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 21 23 23 24 27 28 25 26 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 63 60 64 37 20 10 61 112 138 178 259 270 254 200 MB DIV 103 123 137 157 128 43 56 76 93 26 53 66 48 700-850 TADV 13 16 21 34 60 20 10 -24 76 112 76 23 -10 LAND (KM) 178 327 431 261 102 119 348 528 388 491 753 1123 1449 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.5 25.8 27.4 28.9 31.8 35.1 39.1 43.2 46.4 48.3 51.1 54.6 LONG(DEG W) 87.8 87.4 87.0 85.6 84.1 79.4 72.1 63.1 53.6 46.6 42.7 37.8 32.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 17 20 22 30 38 41 35 23 19 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 15 21 57 11 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 11. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -10. -20. -32. -43. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 6. 7. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 13. 13. 11. 6. -5. -15. -19. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.2 87.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.31 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.68 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.75 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.51 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 49.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.89 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 19.2% 11.2% 9.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 8.1% 4.3% 3.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/06/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 47 43 43 41 36 25 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 44 40 40 38 33 22 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 34 34 32 27 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 25 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT