* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/07/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 41 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 48 46 44 39 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 43 40 32 25 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 38 44 43 52 67 83 81 68 56 43 18 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -5 7 13 3 -10 -17 -6 8 7 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 253 253 242 231 229 236 252 251 260 255 257 258 253 SST (C) 26.5 25.8 24.7 24.2 23.7 13.7 4.7 4.4 12.4 9.1 7.6 8.5 8.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 119 111 108 105 74 68 67 69 67 64 60 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 116 109 106 101 72 67 N/A 67 66 63 59 60 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -49.3 -48.2 -47.4 -46.9 -46.3 -46.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 59 57 57 58 57 48 46 51 56 70 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 9 54 73 97 149 159 202 187 141 176 170 155 200 MB DIV 56 43 65 72 77 106 54 31 46 43 56 31 52 700-850 TADV 30 18 62 6 -92 -24 23 29 38 17 18 -2 -2 LAND (KM) -62 89 113 418 504 338 141 560 1024 1411 1284 1159 1124 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 32.5 34.2 36.2 38.1 42.8 45.8 47.7 49.4 51.8 55.1 56.0 55.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.1 78.8 75.5 71.1 66.8 58.6 51.8 45.3 39.0 33.8 29.8 27.8 27.3 STM SPEED (KT) 29 33 37 40 39 34 27 23 21 20 14 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 7 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 24 CX,CY: 20/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -15. -31. -45. -55. -61. -65. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -17. -26. -40. -53. -63. -70. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.7 82.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/07/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.33 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/07/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/07/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 48 46 44 39 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 42 40 35 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 37 32 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT