* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012016 06/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 27 28 31 34 38 40 41 43 44 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 27 28 31 34 38 40 41 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 8 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 161 168 169 160 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 166 164 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -11 -5 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 48 51 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 104 84 57 50 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.1 94.8 94.4 94.3 94.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 37 36 36 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. 1. 4. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 95.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012016 ONE 06/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.91 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.47 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.45 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 62.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 -1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 25.2% 17.2% 11.4% 0.0% 12.4% 14.7% Logistic: 1.7% 9.3% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 4.1% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 2.8% 12.1% 7.3% 4.3% 0.2% 5.5% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012016 ONE 06/07/16 12 UTC ##