* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022016 07/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 30 32 34 32 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 30 32 34 32 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 1 0 5 13 15 21 22 22 24 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 0 -2 0 3 0 -1 2 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 23 32 58 265 224 250 241 248 238 234 239 250 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 27.6 26.8 26.2 25.5 24.7 24.5 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 140 132 126 119 110 108 111 110 108 109 113 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 52 50 48 45 41 37 36 33 33 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 12 12 11 11 9 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 31 24 11 4 12 10 -6 -3 -3 18 20 200 MB DIV 14 -4 0 11 12 5 -18 -26 -36 -9 -33 -54 -40 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 2 2 0 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1163 1179 1197 1208 1239 1350 1483 1642 1797 1955 2125 2136 1965 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.6 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.3 18.1 17.7 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.5 118.4 119.4 120.5 122.8 125.2 127.4 129.4 131.1 132.9 134.6 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 33 27 12 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. 0. -4. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 7. 1. -6. -14. -19. -22. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 116.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022016 TWO 07/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.71 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.46 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 189.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.64 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.33 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.98 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.5% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 10.1% 7.9% 2.2% 0.9% 2.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 11.1% 8.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 TWO 07/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##