* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022016 07/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 37 36 35 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 37 36 35 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 35 32 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 1 4 9 13 20 26 28 23 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -2 -1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 7 SHEAR DIR 38 62 56 181 233 233 205 209 222 231 234 239 183 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.3 24.9 25.3 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 139 134 130 125 116 111 116 118 120 124 128 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 52 53 51 47 44 41 39 37 36 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 42 36 29 17 9 -3 -7 -11 -8 -5 27 46 99 200 MB DIV -2 5 6 10 9 -2 -22 -11 2 -28 -48 -51 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 2 0 6 1 4 4 LAND (KM) 1189 1229 1268 1295 1330 1455 1579 1687 1821 2005 2248 2144 2032 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.4 17.7 17.7 17.3 16.6 15.9 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.3 119.2 120.2 121.2 123.4 125.5 127.3 129.0 130.9 133.2 134.9 136.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 11 9 9 9 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 42 30 11 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 11 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. -1. -6. -13. -17. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 117.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022016 TWO 07/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.66 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.32 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.35 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 222.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.59 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.29 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 21.7% 17.1% 11.8% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 10.4% 5.7% 1.7% 0.6% 1.8% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 10.8% 7.6% 4.5% 0.2% 4.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 TWO 07/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##