* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022016 07/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 39 38 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 39 38 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 34 29 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 1 3 8 11 16 21 28 23 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 16 10 214 236 226 228 219 221 224 232 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.4 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.6 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 132 129 125 118 112 114 117 119 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 53 50 52 50 44 43 42 41 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 13 12 10 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 28 14 4 1 -1 -3 -15 -7 0 17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 2 7 11 9 2 -12 1 0 -23 -59 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1220 1256 1291 1333 1383 1525 1641 1766 1918 2109 2264 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.4 17.8 17.9 17.6 16.9 15.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.5 120.4 121.5 122.5 124.7 126.8 128.5 130.1 131.8 133.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 8 8 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 20 8 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. -1. -5. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 3. -2. -10. -18. -23. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 118.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022016 TWO 07/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.60 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.18 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.68 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 231.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.58 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.32 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 26.2% 18.6% 11.9% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 18.9% 11.8% 7.4% 3.5% 3.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 15.5% 10.3% 6.5% 1.2% 5.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 TWO 07/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##