* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP022016 07/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 42 39 33 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 42 39 33 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 39 36 31 26 21 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 8 9 11 20 25 25 20 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 31 215 243 239 222 224 219 224 225 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.6 24.9 24.8 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 127 124 120 112 111 113 112 114 117 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 49 48 44 40 39 37 34 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 15 5 1 1 -1 -2 -4 0 28 28 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 4 4 13 10 -6 -13 -6 -18 -37 -45 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 3 0 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1256 1291 1336 1392 1456 1567 1712 1867 2031 2219 2093 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.1 17.8 17.3 16.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.7 121.7 122.8 123.9 125.9 128.1 129.9 131.6 133.4 135.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 5 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. -2. -9. -18. -24. -30. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.8 119.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022016 AGATHA 07/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.50 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 283.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.50 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.33 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 24.2% 17.1% 10.9% 10.7% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 7.5% 7.2% 4.7% 2.2% 1.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 10.7% 8.1% 5.2% 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 AGATHA 07/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##