* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME AL702016 07/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 30 34 35 33 33 33 36 40 45 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 30 34 35 33 33 33 36 40 45 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 26 26 23 19 17 15 15 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 5 6 17 29 38 29 31 21 24 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 6 7 4 7 8 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 127 87 98 142 177 237 234 258 275 296 311 330 314 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 131 133 140 144 146 149 152 159 161 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 139 138 140 149 152 151 151 151 153 152 151 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 8 10 11 13 13 15 15 16 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 66 64 61 59 56 55 48 44 42 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -9 -8 -8 -10 -24 -28 -57 -63 -88 -108 -141 -142 200 MB DIV 87 82 62 44 43 25 10 14 25 -2 -4 -20 -2 700-850 TADV -10 -9 -6 -3 2 15 17 26 23 17 12 -3 3 LAND (KM) 1163 1056 968 892 839 811 583 360 22 28 137 109 136 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.5 12.1 13.6 15.4 17.2 18.7 20.0 21.3 22.4 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 44.1 45.9 47.8 49.8 54.1 58.4 62.5 66.5 70.4 73.7 76.6 78.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 19 20 21 23 23 21 20 19 15 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 14 36 39 34 36 24 33 35 19 48 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 31. 36. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -8. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 14. 15. 13. 13. 13. 16. 20. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 42.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL702016 NONAME 07/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.82 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 67.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 38.4% 20.0% 9.1% 0.0% 8.0% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 8.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 2.6% 15.6% 7.3% 3.1% 0.0% 2.7% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL702016 NONAME 07/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL702016 NONAME 07/03/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 28 30 34 35 33 33 33 36 40 45 18HR AGO 20 19 21 25 27 31 32 30 30 30 33 37 42 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 22 26 27 25 25 25 28 32 37 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT