* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032016 07/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 52 64 80 92 107 109 111 104 96 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 52 64 80 92 107 109 111 104 96 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 45 55 68 83 99 106 102 89 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 10 9 10 11 7 13 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 0 2 8 SHEAR DIR 88 85 93 85 65 60 60 64 56 72 42 57 21 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.0 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 162 160 152 154 153 152 145 134 123 122 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -51.9 -52.8 -51.6 -52.0 -50.7 -51.5 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 68 69 72 75 72 68 67 67 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 17 18 22 26 35 37 41 39 37 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -3 -6 -8 -4 14 30 48 57 82 83 85 200 MB DIV 90 66 47 37 44 57 82 85 104 55 68 59 81 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 3 1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -5 -4 -2 6 LAND (KM) 952 989 1031 1057 1092 1214 1310 1418 1525 1596 1692 1792 1850 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 36 36 38 35 22 30 46 28 18 24 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 19. 32. 33. 37. 32. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 34. 50. 62. 77. 79. 81. 74. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.9 107.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 THREE 07/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.48 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 81.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.28 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 34.5% 24.1% 16.3% 0.0% 18.8% 18.1% Logistic: 7.7% 35.1% 20.8% 8.5% 4.0% 15.9% 19.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 18.8% 8.1% 1.1% 0.3% 2.9% 14.2% Consensus: 7.2% 29.5% 17.7% 8.7% 1.4% 12.6% 17.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 THREE 07/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##