* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME AL702016 07/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 33 35 33 31 32 34 37 42 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 33 35 33 31 32 34 37 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 33 31 26 23 21 21 22 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 10 12 22 38 31 30 19 18 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 2 3 3 4 5 2 4 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 90 102 131 169 216 239 239 279 281 316 304 316 296 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 133 136 141 143 145 145 144 145 151 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 137 140 144 149 147 144 139 133 132 138 150 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 9 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 65 64 60 56 55 53 49 49 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -16 -11 -13 -24 -26 -53 -79 -103 -135 -144 -137 -111 200 MB DIV 63 48 46 46 30 24 1 7 -8 10 4 10 5 700-850 TADV -9 -5 0 9 11 20 34 32 25 21 0 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 1072 990 929 888 866 731 633 251 200 220 215 190 63 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.4 13.1 15.0 16.9 18.9 20.3 21.4 21.7 21.6 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 45.7 47.5 49.4 51.5 55.8 59.9 63.4 66.3 68.8 70.5 72.4 74.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 19 21 22 23 21 17 14 10 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 14 31 38 23 25 40 32 30 25 30 39 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 8. 6. 7. 9. 12. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 44.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL702016 NONAME 07/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.71 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.39 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.78 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 88.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 23.8% 12.3% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% Logistic: 6.7% 31.5% 17.7% 6.9% 0.0% 3.2% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 11.6% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 4.6% 22.3% 10.8% 5.8% 0.0% 1.1% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL702016 NONAME 07/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL702016 NONAME 07/03/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 33 35 33 31 32 34 37 42 45 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 30 32 30 28 29 31 34 39 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 27 25 23 24 26 29 34 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT