* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032016 07/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 51 56 70 82 96 103 107 108 104 94 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 51 56 70 82 96 103 107 108 104 94 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 49 53 63 76 90 100 102 97 87 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 11 6 9 8 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -5 -6 -6 0 1 6 SHEAR DIR 107 114 93 68 61 61 63 53 31 83 69 39 81 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.6 28.9 28.3 28.0 27.1 26.0 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 161 158 153 151 154 148 145 135 124 123 119 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 70 68 73 72 68 65 65 63 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 18 18 22 24 30 34 38 42 43 40 850 MB ENV VOR 2 6 0 -3 -6 4 20 32 49 61 89 93 100 200 MB DIV 58 50 51 49 51 71 70 71 80 63 76 71 48 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 2 0 -1 -3 -6 -5 -6 -2 0 5 LAND (KM) 974 1002 1036 1087 1149 1224 1304 1422 1529 1653 1777 1865 1947 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.0 110.8 111.9 113.0 115.3 117.4 119.7 122.0 124.3 126.4 128.4 130.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 37 32 24 24 37 40 14 22 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 10. 13. 22. 29. 33. 36. 35. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 21. 35. 47. 61. 69. 72. 73. 69. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.5 109.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 THREE 07/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.81 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.55 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.43 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 102.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.27 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 31.9% 23.6% 16.6% 14.8% 19.3% 19.9% Logistic: 9.3% 34.3% 14.9% 7.6% 3.6% 14.8% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 41.1% 18.5% 3.8% 1.5% 5.8% 16.7% Consensus: 8.0% 35.7% 19.0% 9.3% 6.6% 13.3% 15.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 THREE 07/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##