* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 63 68 73 87 96 103 106 109 107 99 89 V (KT) LAND 50 57 63 68 73 87 96 103 106 109 107 99 89 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 66 74 80 92 100 103 104 99 89 77 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 10 10 9 12 9 8 8 5 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 2 1 1 1 -2 0 3 4 3 7 SHEAR DIR 104 89 58 55 54 62 48 52 74 42 78 82 98 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.8 26.7 25.9 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 158 154 152 153 152 147 143 131 122 122 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 68 69 68 70 73 71 68 68 67 66 66 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 22 27 30 33 37 41 42 40 38 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 -4 -7 -6 5 9 27 36 55 60 70 69 200 MB DIV 51 51 41 39 60 92 45 41 28 79 64 55 38 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 1 0 -3 -4 -4 -5 -1 -2 1 3 LAND (KM) 1013 1045 1088 1148 1209 1270 1352 1470 1593 1718 1809 1895 1982 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.8 111.8 112.9 114.0 116.2 118.4 120.7 123.0 125.2 127.1 129.0 130.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 31 27 26 28 48 29 23 21 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 21.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 15. 21. 26. 31. 31. 27. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 23. 37. 46. 53. 56. 59. 57. 49. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.5 109.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 7.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.65 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.39 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.41 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 162.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.21 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 58% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 26.4% 43.9% 33.4% 33.4% 21.3% 57.5% 47.8% Logistic: 21.2% 42.6% 20.2% 13.5% 6.6% 15.5% 11.7% Bayesian: 1.8% 36.9% 20.3% 7.6% 1.5% 5.5% 15.4% Consensus: 16.4% 41.1% 24.6% 18.1% 9.8% 26.2% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##