* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 67 73 79 94 100 110 114 111 108 100 89 V (KT) LAND 55 62 67 73 79 94 100 110 114 111 108 100 89 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 73 82 90 104 111 112 107 96 84 72 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 9 9 9 11 13 7 6 8 6 11 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 0 1 -1 0 1 3 7 6 13 SHEAR DIR 107 69 64 57 63 56 30 78 65 72 70 80 102 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.2 28.0 27.0 25.9 25.9 25.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 153 151 151 153 147 145 135 123 122 119 112 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 70 72 72 69 68 66 64 62 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 23 25 31 33 38 41 42 41 41 37 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 2 2 10 18 28 43 57 71 71 80 64 200 MB DIV 50 39 43 57 68 65 44 50 76 60 63 62 39 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 5 7 LAND (KM) 1025 1075 1134 1192 1219 1299 1414 1521 1661 1790 1864 1964 2076 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.7 17.3 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 112.0 113.0 114.1 115.2 117.6 119.7 122.0 124.5 126.7 128.6 130.4 132.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 25 25 26 40 41 17 21 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 33.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 18. 26. 30. 30. 28. 25. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 18. 24. 39. 45. 55. 59. 56. 53. 45. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.1 110.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 7.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.57 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.43 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 173.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.33 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 6.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 38.9% 34.1% 29.0% 18.1% 47.4% 20.3% Logistic: 26.8% 38.3% 25.4% 13.3% 7.3% 19.5% 11.7% Bayesian: 7.8% 49.2% 34.1% 18.8% 10.6% 17.0% 14.4% Consensus: 18.7% 42.1% 31.2% 20.4% 12.0% 28.0% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##