* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 65 72 78 87 96 106 105 101 97 89 81 V (KT) LAND 55 59 65 72 78 87 96 106 105 101 97 89 81 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 65 72 78 90 98 102 98 87 77 66 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 9 12 12 8 5 5 1 5 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 4 3 0 0 0 2 5 7 11 13 SHEAR DIR 53 47 32 53 53 25 58 72 81 7 76 122 141 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.6 26.5 25.7 26.0 25.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 151 151 153 151 147 140 129 121 124 115 104 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.5 -52.2 -50.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 70 73 71 71 69 68 65 64 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 26 29 31 33 36 40 40 39 38 36 33 850 MB ENV VOR -1 1 2 8 10 13 32 43 54 61 74 75 61 200 MB DIV 41 64 68 74 56 27 59 77 77 36 58 58 35 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -3 -3 -5 -2 -1 0 0 2 7 6 LAND (KM) 1073 1141 1203 1222 1253 1365 1480 1576 1689 1799 1927 2027 2097 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 16.8 17.6 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.9 114.1 115.2 116.4 118.7 121.0 123.1 125.2 127.3 129.5 131.4 133.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 26 26 26 27 49 25 21 16 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 38.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 6. 9. 13. 18. 25. 25. 23. 21. 17. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 23. 32. 41. 51. 50. 46. 42. 34. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.2 111.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 4.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.56 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 187.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.64 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.44 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 40.6% 29.4% 18.4% 18.0% 36.9% 17.6% Logistic: 11.3% 29.5% 15.8% 8.7% 5.3% 8.2% 4.9% Bayesian: 2.8% 22.2% 12.7% 5.0% 1.8% 10.7% 5.2% Consensus: 10.1% 30.8% 19.3% 10.7% 8.4% 18.6% 9.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##