* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP022016 07/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 30 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 30 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 39 36 34 31 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 23 27 30 31 31 29 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 1 2 3 7 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 228 223 221 231 240 236 255 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.7 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.3 24.2 24.5 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 112 111 109 105 104 107 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 40 39 39 35 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -2 -4 -5 5 1 17 3 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -3 25 20 12 -2 -41 -55 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 0 6 2 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1626 1688 1755 1823 1895 2059 2135 1937 1741 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.8 128.8 129.8 130.7 132.5 134.5 136.4 138.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -16. -22. -26. -29. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -15. -25. -34. -42. -50. -53. -55. -57. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.9 126.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022016 AGATHA 07/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 372.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 AGATHA 07/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##