* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 68 75 81 93 102 112 109 99 94 85 77 V (KT) LAND 55 61 68 75 81 93 102 112 109 99 94 85 77 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 68 76 83 96 106 106 95 81 71 60 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 10 12 12 6 5 8 5 7 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 2 2 0 -1 0 2 8 10 9 8 SHEAR DIR 49 40 40 33 39 19 55 70 77 89 109 139 160 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.2 27.9 26.9 25.8 25.7 25.4 24.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 153 153 147 144 133 121 120 117 108 99 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 69 71 74 73 70 69 67 63 63 63 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 26 28 30 34 37 43 42 37 38 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 4 7 15 22 37 54 59 57 66 46 47 200 MB DIV 50 57 52 57 77 55 60 72 59 66 57 53 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 -1 -1 0 1 6 6 13 LAND (KM) 1109 1189 1210 1242 1286 1422 1526 1631 1750 1834 1926 2003 2100 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.5 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.8 115.0 116.2 117.4 119.8 122.2 124.4 126.5 128.4 130.2 131.8 133.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 26 27 37 40 17 17 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 42.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 21. 29. 29. 21. 21. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 26. 38. 47. 57. 54. 44. 39. 30. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.5 112.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 5.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.56 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.37 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.89 8.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.48 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 169.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.9 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 21.0% 54.2% 35.1% 26.3% 24.0% 51.3% 24.7% Logistic: 23.2% 51.6% 28.5% 22.5% 15.0% 17.9% 10.1% Bayesian: 14.3% 38.4% 25.2% 11.5% 4.9% 28.8% 6.2% Consensus: 19.5% 48.1% 29.6% 20.1% 14.7% 32.7% 13.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##