* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 80 87 92 106 112 115 106 97 88 80 69 V (KT) LAND 65 72 80 87 92 106 112 115 106 97 88 80 69 V (KT) LGEM 65 74 82 90 98 109 114 106 90 78 65 53 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 12 10 6 5 7 5 4 4 10 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 8 11 15 12 13 SHEAR DIR 35 41 44 43 33 43 54 65 133 172 118 125 151 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.4 25.7 25.7 25.0 24.3 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 150 146 143 139 128 120 120 113 105 100 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.4 -52.0 -50.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 69 71 74 73 73 69 67 66 61 63 62 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 26 27 28 35 38 40 37 36 33 32 28 850 MB ENV VOR -4 1 5 9 8 18 35 48 46 52 47 36 34 200 MB DIV 54 65 62 68 42 46 79 89 8 47 54 55 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -3 -1 -2 3 5 8 11 23 LAND (KM) 1171 1187 1219 1273 1339 1460 1567 1695 1812 1906 1985 2079 2112 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.5 17.2 18.1 19.0 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 115.1 116.3 117.6 118.8 121.1 123.4 125.6 127.7 129.6 131.3 133.0 134.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 11 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 26 40 50 20 18 11 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 47.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 21. 25. 22. 19. 15. 13. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 22. 27. 41. 47. 50. 41. 32. 23. 15. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.0 113.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 9.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.43 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.44 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.95 11.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.47 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 205.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.61 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 -1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 5.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.7 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 40.5% 60.9% 48.6% 41.4% 38.0% 39.4% 17.5% Logistic: 42.8% 62.3% 41.5% 33.1% 24.6% 25.5% 8.2% Bayesian: 38.2% 46.1% 39.0% 25.2% 16.2% 38.1% 3.3% Consensus: 40.5% 56.4% 43.0% 33.2% 26.3% 34.3% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##