* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 77 82 89 101 105 105 99 89 83 74 67 V (KT) LAND 65 71 77 82 89 101 105 105 99 89 83 74 67 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 77 84 90 100 103 96 84 72 60 49 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 10 10 7 6 6 5 4 4 8 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 -1 -1 0 -1 4 11 14 12 14 11 SHEAR DIR 49 52 54 42 45 61 53 104 190 117 140 174 122 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.0 26.0 25.8 25.4 24.8 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 150 146 143 142 134 124 121 117 111 102 101 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 72 69 66 64 60 59 58 57 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 28 31 36 37 37 37 33 32 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR 1 5 9 10 17 28 40 52 52 61 54 45 44 200 MB DIV 54 66 69 37 27 42 73 56 44 40 52 35 25 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 -1 1 5 5 3 15 16 LAND (KM) 1175 1214 1266 1335 1405 1523 1655 1773 1864 1951 2053 2148 2007 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.4 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.3 117.5 118.8 120.1 122.5 124.7 126.7 128.7 130.5 132.3 134.0 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 40 49 35 20 19 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 32.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 14. 16. 18. 17. 12. 10. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 24. 36. 40. 40. 34. 24. 18. 9. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.5 115.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 5.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.41 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.45 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.82 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.42 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 213.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.60 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.3 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 25.4% 41.4% 32.6% 27.4% 25.9% 23.2% 15.7% Logistic: 12.7% 31.0% 16.6% 11.1% 6.8% 8.7% 3.9% Bayesian: 12.0% 38.0% 23.4% 10.1% 4.7% 12.1% 1.0% Consensus: 16.7% 36.8% 24.2% 16.2% 12.5% 14.6% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##