* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 80 86 93 102 108 101 96 90 80 71 63 V (KT) LAND 70 75 80 86 93 102 108 101 96 90 80 71 63 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 81 87 93 102 102 94 83 71 57 45 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 10 5 7 3 1 4 7 12 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 -2 -1 1 11 16 17 14 13 15 SHEAR DIR 52 48 45 37 43 46 66 83 55 89 139 184 152 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.4 26.5 25.7 25.7 25.2 24.6 23.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 146 142 141 138 129 120 120 114 108 102 103 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 70 68 68 65 61 60 60 59 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 30 33 36 39 35 35 35 32 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 8 14 16 23 25 34 45 49 56 55 46 41 32 200 MB DIV 69 73 50 34 36 65 71 37 47 77 63 22 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 -4 0 5 4 7 14 22 16 LAND (KM) 1194 1246 1308 1379 1440 1567 1685 1797 1890 1973 2032 2127 1955 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.6 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.4 118.6 119.9 121.2 123.5 125.4 127.5 129.4 131.0 132.2 133.9 136.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 10 10 10 9 8 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 37 49 36 19 24 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 42.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 14. 14. 13. 9. 4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 23. 32. 38. 31. 26. 20. 10. 1. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.9 116.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.34 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.92 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.43 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 239.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.56 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 25.8% 39.6% 30.3% 20.5% 19.5% 18.9% 14.1% Logistic: 13.2% 38.6% 19.6% 14.9% 10.7% 9.2% 1.9% Bayesian: 12.6% 24.7% 13.9% 5.5% 2.1% 6.8% 0.3% Consensus: 17.2% 34.3% 21.3% 13.6% 10.8% 11.6% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##