* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 93 98 104 108 112 106 98 90 82 70 60 V (KT) LAND 80 86 93 98 104 108 112 106 98 90 82 70 60 V (KT) LGEM 80 88 95 101 104 108 104 94 82 70 58 44 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 2 2 5 2 3 6 7 12 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 2 11 13 9 10 10 16 SHEAR DIR 58 39 38 169 57 60 112 89 77 142 158 175 166 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.1 26.1 25.7 25.5 24.8 24.1 23.8 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 142 141 141 135 124 120 118 110 103 101 104 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 74 72 71 69 67 64 63 62 62 58 52 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 29 31 33 34 38 37 36 35 34 31 26 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 22 25 30 37 47 48 65 60 61 49 40 200 MB DIV 66 53 38 50 73 61 31 46 74 81 52 17 16 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 2 3 8 10 20 21 25 LAND (KM) 1257 1315 1375 1433 1500 1631 1745 1826 1900 1983 2056 2081 1863 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.3 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.7 119.9 121.1 122.3 124.4 126.3 128.1 129.8 131.5 133.0 134.9 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 39 49 35 20 17 20 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 45.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 16. 15. 13. 11. 6. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 18. 24. 28. 32. 26. 18. 10. 2. -10. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.1 117.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 6.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.23 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.42 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.86 7.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 259.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.54 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 38.0% 41.0% 32.8% 28.0% 25.5% 19.1% 0.0% Logistic: 14.4% 39.5% 22.9% 18.8% 12.7% 10.5% 3.0% Bayesian: 17.5% 27.8% 19.9% 8.9% 4.0% 6.4% 0.0% Consensus: 23.3% 36.1% 25.2% 18.6% 14.1% 12.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##