* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 90 95 99 103 109 102 98 90 79 68 57 46 V (KT) LAND 85 90 95 99 103 109 102 98 90 79 68 57 46 V (KT) LGEM 85 90 94 97 99 101 93 84 73 59 46 35 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 3 4 5 4 10 4 12 11 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 8 13 16 15 13 16 13 SHEAR DIR 42 20 9 30 58 31 58 50 40 147 188 148 175 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.6 25.8 25.9 25.5 24.7 23.9 24.0 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 143 141 139 129 121 122 118 110 101 102 105 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -50.9 -52.0 -51.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 69 68 67 64 66 64 60 51 39 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 30 31 32 35 33 34 33 30 27 24 18 850 MB ENV VOR 15 25 32 30 31 38 41 47 58 66 50 37 32 200 MB DIV 58 55 81 70 59 75 44 65 78 78 26 15 7 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -2 -5 -1 1 5 9 20 29 12 7 LAND (KM) 1369 1427 1478 1539 1606 1714 1822 1911 2007 2080 2155 1976 1789 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.4 19.6 20.4 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.3 121.5 122.6 123.7 125.5 127.5 129.3 131.0 132.6 134.2 135.9 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 47 38 20 21 30 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 32.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 8. 10. 9. 5. 1. -4. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 24. 17. 13. 5. -6. -17. -28. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.1 119.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.17 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.41 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.87 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.52 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 289.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.54 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 24.3% 34.0% 26.4% 19.1% 16.3% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.5% 28.4% 18.9% 12.3% 8.4% 6.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 13.2% 17.2% 8.6% 2.8% 1.1% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 26.5% 18.0% 11.4% 8.6% 7.8% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##