* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 112 117 119 120 113 104 93 81 71 57 48 39 V (KT) LAND 105 112 117 119 120 113 104 93 81 71 57 48 39 V (KT) LGEM 105 114 118 118 116 105 93 82 69 55 42 31 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 4 5 4 6 7 6 9 10 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 -2 5 12 14 16 20 15 18 14 SHEAR DIR 15 339 345 16 33 18 56 41 119 158 189 216 234 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.2 24.4 24.1 24.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 141 137 125 123 121 115 106 103 105 107 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 71 68 69 67 64 63 65 61 55 45 38 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 32 32 34 34 34 33 31 30 25 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR 21 29 29 30 30 39 43 63 63 72 50 51 37 200 MB DIV 62 101 95 81 66 48 44 66 60 42 19 22 0 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 1 5 8 11 26 25 17 6 LAND (KM) 1445 1512 1586 1637 1692 1792 1888 1968 2048 2142 2043 1872 1696 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.4 20.2 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.6 122.8 123.8 124.7 126.5 128.4 130.1 131.8 133.5 135.3 136.9 138.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 23 27 34 27 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 46.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -22. -30. -38. -43. -47. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. -4. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 14. 15. 8. -1. -12. -24. -34. -48. -57. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.2 120.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 357.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.63 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 38.3% 31.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.1% 15.4% 15.3% 10.9% 7.0% 3.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 38.8% 4.6% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 32.1% 17.2% 5.8% 3.9% 2.4% 1.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##