* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 124 128 129 127 114 97 87 71 60 46 37 29 V (KT) LAND 115 124 128 129 127 114 97 87 71 60 46 37 29 V (KT) LGEM 115 120 120 116 109 93 79 67 56 45 35 27 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 5 7 7 10 5 10 9 7 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -2 0 9 11 11 11 14 18 14 7 SHEAR DIR 24 48 50 50 62 79 61 81 134 183 218 245 221 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.0 24.1 23.9 24.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 141 138 132 123 123 120 113 104 102 105 108 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -52.3 -51.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 71 68 69 67 65 65 66 65 60 51 42 34 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 34 35 36 35 32 33 29 27 23 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR 29 29 27 31 34 38 46 48 51 52 37 38 28 200 MB DIV 92 111 74 59 61 37 63 46 61 41 8 9 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -5 -3 1 4 6 15 25 23 8 5 LAND (KM) 1493 1545 1606 1669 1735 1831 1911 1993 2044 2122 1997 1790 1593 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.3 16.0 16.5 17.0 18.0 19.2 20.6 21.1 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.4 123.5 124.5 125.5 127.4 129.0 130.5 131.9 133.6 135.7 137.7 139.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 31 28 16 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -20. -30. -40. -48. -54. -59. -61. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 4. 0. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 0. 1. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 13. 14. 12. -1. -18. -28. -44. -55. -69. -78. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.3 121.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 444.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 50.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 53.2% 21.9% 30.8% 16.9% 12.2% 5.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 30.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 44.4% 7.3% 10.3% 5.7% 4.1% 1.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##