* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 119 118 115 104 91 80 67 53 43 34 27 V (KT) LAND 115 117 119 118 115 104 91 80 67 53 43 34 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 111 106 99 84 73 62 51 40 31 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 6 5 7 8 10 12 8 6 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 4 7 7 8 11 11 16 8 7 SHEAR DIR 358 36 65 56 74 85 96 141 158 181 180 230 240 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.3 24.5 23.9 24.1 24.4 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 138 133 126 122 121 116 108 102 104 107 107 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 66 65 66 67 62 55 45 36 29 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 35 37 36 36 33 32 30 26 22 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 26 26 28 37 43 46 64 56 71 56 53 31 26 200 MB DIV 105 94 97 81 36 41 74 45 62 20 16 4 -9 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -2 0 4 5 10 22 17 13 9 6 LAND (KM) 1536 1587 1645 1707 1775 1850 1920 1995 2070 2125 1914 1709 1497 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.6 21.3 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 123.2 124.2 125.3 126.3 128.0 129.5 131.1 132.7 134.5 136.5 138.5 140.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 29 30 17 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -21. -32. -41. -49. -56. -60. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -6. -12. -16. -21. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 3. 0. -11. -24. -35. -48. -62. -72. -81. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.5 122.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 495.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.46 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 1.9% 3.2% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 0.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 4 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##