* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 110 110 107 99 92 81 69 57 47 40 34 V (KT) LAND 110 109 110 110 107 99 92 81 69 57 47 40 34 V (KT) LGEM 110 106 102 96 90 78 68 59 49 39 31 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 3 8 10 8 12 7 5 10 10 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 4 3 4 5 8 14 15 10 13 8 SHEAR DIR 32 52 72 103 107 86 100 120 159 219 258 239 240 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.9 25.5 24.8 24.0 23.7 24.0 24.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 132 126 122 122 117 110 102 99 103 105 105 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 65 65 67 64 58 50 42 37 30 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 36 36 35 34 34 31 29 25 21 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 18 25 36 44 44 58 54 51 42 27 18 12 16 200 MB DIV 85 95 89 62 50 67 53 57 29 17 7 1 9 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -2 1 5 6 5 12 24 22 11 9 6 LAND (KM) 1576 1637 1705 1764 1808 1888 1957 2024 2084 2070 1865 1669 1474 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.4 20.6 21.5 22.3 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.2 125.3 126.3 127.2 128.9 130.4 131.9 133.3 135.0 137.0 139.0 141.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 14 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -21. -30. -39. -47. -52. -56. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -1. -4. -9. -14. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. -3. -11. -18. -29. -41. -53. -63. -70. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.9 123.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 501.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##