* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 106 103 101 91 81 70 58 48 37 30 24 V (KT) LAND 110 108 106 103 101 91 81 70 58 48 37 30 24 V (KT) LGEM 110 104 97 90 83 72 62 52 42 33 26 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 7 9 9 11 14 12 7 13 17 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 4 6 7 4 9 9 20 13 14 7 SHEAR DIR 216 120 88 108 96 99 130 155 186 183 235 240 256 SST (C) 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.1 24.3 23.7 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 126 123 122 121 113 105 99 101 103 104 105 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 65 65 66 61 55 49 43 39 34 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 33 33 35 33 32 30 26 24 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 26 35 44 44 49 66 61 57 32 21 7 14 9 200 MB DIV 91 86 78 71 60 74 53 47 20 4 15 0 0 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 5 5 6 8 23 23 15 10 10 7 LAND (KM) 1645 1704 1768 1809 1850 1928 1983 2038 2107 1968 1761 1593 1437 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.3 17.0 18.0 19.1 20.2 21.3 22.3 22.6 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.3 126.3 127.2 128.0 129.7 131.2 132.6 134.2 136.0 138.1 139.8 141.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 15 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -13. -22. -32. -41. -49. -54. -58. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -17. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -19. -29. -40. -52. -62. -73. -79. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.1 124.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 505.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.64 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 35 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##