* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 58 69 78 85 90 95 95 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 58 69 78 85 90 95 95 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 43 52 64 77 89 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 1 3 4 0 2 2 4 6 5 1 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -1 -2 1 -1 1 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 77 105 105 237 289 360 119 70 97 101 53 126 107 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 157 156 154 151 151 150 149 149 150 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 76 75 79 79 79 80 79 74 72 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 15 18 21 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -24 -26 -27 -23 -8 -2 4 16 33 52 71 70 200 MB DIV 36 34 27 25 29 40 43 83 93 109 105 131 125 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 -3 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 892 925 962 990 1020 1101 1227 1283 1365 1451 1555 1616 1654 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 27 27 27 23 20 21 32 41 37 30 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 33. 44. 53. 60. 65. 70. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 108.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.93 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.28 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 34.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.75 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 37.0% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.4% 69.6% 46.2% 34.0% 21.4% 48.4% 56.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 10.1% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 2.3% 4.3% Consensus: 3.8% 38.9% 24.2% 11.6% 7.2% 16.9% 20.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/06/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##